A 2026 midterm poll estimates opinions among a defined population during a particular interview period. It does not count ballots or establish who has won.
Before looking at the largest number in a chart, find the race, population, and fieldwork dates. A national congressional survey, a statewide Senate survey, and a district survey answer different questions.
Read the original release
A screenshot often omits the information needed to evaluate a poll. Open the pollster's release and look for the sample size, recruitment method, question wording, weighting, sponsor, and uncertainty statement.
AAPOR's reporting guidance emphasizes checking how a survey was conducted and what it actually asked. Source: AAPOR's journalist guide.
Compare the right quantities
Consider a hypothetical survey showing Candidate A at 47%, Candidate B at 44%, and 9% supporting other choices or remaining undecided. This is a three-point lead in that sample, not a three-point certified election margin.
The unanswered portion matters. So do turnout assumptions and sampling uncertainty. You cannot convert those figures into a reliable win probability by treating every undecided respondent as an equal future allocation.
Separate three products
A poll is a survey estimate. A polling average combines selected polls using specified rules. A forecast adds assumptions to estimate possible election outcomes.
A headline should identify which product supplies its number. “Candidate has 60%” could mean vote share, respondent approval, or modeled win probability. Those are very different claims.
Build a small tracking record
For each survey, record its geography, office, fieldwork, sample population, and original source. Compare like with like. Mark partisan sponsorship rather than automatically excluding or accepting the poll.
Look for patterns across independent sources, but remember that multiple polls can share systematic problems. A larger pile of similar estimates does not eliminate all uncertainty.
This article explains how to evaluate polling; it does not present an independently verified live polling average or name a current favorite.
Related reading: polling averages, likely voters, and win probabilities.