The House chooses its speaker through a floor election. Winning the largest number of House seats gives a party a strong organizational advantage, but the speaker still needs the required support in the chamber.
Party selection of a nominee and the House's formal election are different steps.
What the vote requires
Under the usual procedure, a candidate needs a majority of votes cast for a named person. Members can vote for a candidate, vote “present,” or refrain from voting; these choices can affect the threshold.
The House's historical guide explains the options and why some elections require multiple ballots. Source: House speaker election history.
Why 218 is not always the required tally
With 435 members voting for named candidates, 218 is the majority. If fewer cast such votes, the winning threshold can be lower.
Consider a hypothetical election in which 430 votes are cast for named people and five members vote present. A majority of those 430 named votes is 216.
The actual procedure and recorded vote determine the result. Do not automatically apply the full-membership number to every ballot.
What if no candidate wins?
Another ballot may be required. Members can negotiate, change their votes, or consider different candidates.
A party's internal disagreements can therefore matter even if it has a numerical House majority. The relevant question is whether enough members agree on a person who can obtain the floor majority.
Why the office matters
The speaker is central to House leadership and its legislative agenda. The rules adopted by the chamber and the membership's willingness to support leadership also matter.
A speaker's victory is not a guarantee that every subsequent bill passes. Coalition-building continues after the organizational vote.
What to watch after the midterms
Follow party nominations, the official floor tally, any subsequent ballots, and the rules adopted for the new Congress.
Distinguish speculation about possible candidates from a nomination and distinguish a nomination from election. Until the House acts, a predicted speaker remains a prediction.
Related reading: majority thresholds and the new Congress's start.